Endogenizing long-term material and energy demand in response to power capacity changes by model soft-linking: application to Japan

Ju, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4483-0332, Cao, T., Firdaus, N., & Li, B. (2025). Endogenizing long-term material and energy demand in response to power capacity changes by model soft-linking: application to Japan. Energy Systems 10.1007/s12667-025-00724-9.

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Abstract

Japan's decarbonization transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050 will be more dependent on the long-term development of renewables. However, the renewable power generation technologies themselves are highly material- and energy-intensive. We estimated such materials and energy demands in response to power capacity changes. Our main results show that: (1) achieving a 100% reduction of GHG emissions requires enormous and urgent investment during 2020-2030; (2) the largest gap of material demands would show in 2020-2030, especially for cement-related products, petrochemical products, cables, wood products, and steel products, but with different degrees of dispersion; (3) the largest gap of industrial energy demands would show later in 2030-2040 as a result of early investment (inter-period iterations). Increasing material efficiency and benefiting more and earlier from the increasingly low-carbon energy supply would be the key to Japan's industrial decarbonization.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Decarbonization transition, Endogenous material demand, Integrated Assessment Model, Life Cycle Assessment, Soft-linking
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	20 Feb 2025 07:18
Last Modified:	12 Mar 2025 05:01
URI:	https://iiasa-9.eprints-hosting.org/20414

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