Foreword

The collaboration between the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) goes back more than 20 years, when FAO started a joint project on Land Resources for the Populations of the Future, completed in 1984. Since then, several collaborative programs were undertaken to underpin perspective studies that allowed prediction and estimates on how agriculture would develop toward the 21st century, and where problems were most likely to develop for achieving food security, particularly in developing countries. Those estimates, which are currently being revisited and extended in FAO's study "Agriculture towards 2015/30", have proved to be quite accurate, and are widely quoted and appreciated.

Originating from an internationally accepted Framework for Land Evaluation, the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) methodology enables rational land management options to be formulated on the basis of an inventory of land resources and an evaluation of biophysical limitations and potentials. The fact that digital global databases of climatic parameters, topography, soil and terrain, land cover, and population distribution are now more widely available has enabled revisions and improvements in AEZ calculation procedures. These data have also facilitated the expansion of
AEZ crop suitability and land productivity assessments to temperate and boreal environments. Thus, the assessments of agricultural potentials are now truly global.

A major challenge facing any scientific analysis of complex societal issues is the communication of research results in a way that provides policy makers and the public with helpful and reliable insights. This report presents the methodology
and global data sets applied in the assessment and demonstrates the regional potentials and limitations of land and biological resources. It also discusses various agricultural issues related to regional food security and sustainable resource development.

The report begins to address several key resource questions. Will there be enough land for agricultural production to meet food and fiber demands of future populations? Where do shortages of agricultural land exist, and where there is
room for agricultural expansion? What contribution can be expected from irrigation? Is land under forest ecosystems potentially good agricultural land? What are the main physical constraints to agricultural production? Will global warming
affect agricultural potentials?

It is hoped that the information presented in this report and the accompanying CD-ROM will contribute significantly to a sound use of scarce land resources, and to enhanced food security for all.

Louise Fresco
Assistant Director General
Agriculture Department
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations

Arne Jernelöv
Acting Director
International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis